PEOPLE: International Journal of Social Sciences

FORECASTING EXPORTS IN ALBANIA

Brikena Sulejmani — 2025-03-25

Time series forecasting is a significant domain, in fields such as economics, finance, and weather forecasting. The paper assesses time series forecasting that project forward-looking values based on on historical data. The common models used to capture the trend, seasonality, and anomalies within the time series data are ARIMA, SARIMA, and exponential smoothing. Forecast accuracy depends on the model choice and fine-tuning. Validation and continuous refinement are necessary for reliability and adaptability to changing conditions. Time series forecasting is a valuable tool for decision-making, resource allocation, and planning. An ARIMA model forecasted Albanian exports, providing reliable forecasts for the near future and prioritizing recent observations over past data. One drawback is that new data were not applied to different models for improving future forecasts. Given Albania’s reliance on exports, periodic validation and refinement of model-building are critical. The ARIMA findings recommend 3, 2, and 3, applied in forecasting. Forecast errors were tested, proving model efficiency. Performance may vary by situation, so model assessment over time is essential. These models help researchers forecast Albania's annual exports.

THE COMPLEXITY OF THE ITALIAN HEALTHCARE SYSTEM AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH CITIZENS AND INSTITUTIONS: WHAT BALANCE IS POSSIBLE?

Franco Milani — 2025-03-15

This paper is based on the project work developed by the authors for the executive master's in strategic management and leadership of health organizations, which was attended at the University of Pavia in 2021-2022.The relationship between regulatory and organizational complexity in the healthcare context and the relationship with the patient/citizen is deemed to require i) the implementation of new leadership styles, ii) the dissemination of non-technical skills, iii) the implementation, structured and specific, of participatory processes so that public action is implemented in a tailor-made way for the need of the community for which it was thought, iv) a new mode of communication between stakeholders and institutions so that the ethics of the relationship and communication, transparency, and accountability become the pivot of a new mode of interaction. The project work started by describing the difficulty of managing and interpreting a health context's regulatory and organizational complexity (particularly for hospitals). It then traced a possible mode of interaction between stakeholders and institutions. This article condenses the conclusion of our project work. The content of this article expresses only the views of the authors. None of the opinions can be linked to the organizations the authors work for.

EFFECTS OF RECREATIONAL TENNIS PRACTICES ON BODY COMPOSITION, FREE TIME MANAGEMENT AND MOTIVATIONAL PERSISTENCE

Tolga Beşikçi — 2025-04-23

This study was conducted to examine the body composition, free time management and motivational persistence of individuals participating in recreational tennis. The sample of the study consisted of administrative staff working at Manisa Celal Bayar University, who voluntarily participated in the study and had never received tennis training before. In the study, pre-test-post-test control group experimental design, one of the quantitative research designs, was used. The experimental study was carried out by forming a study group with a total of 24 personnel (equal number of men and women), 12 of whom were in the control group and 12 in the experimental group. As measurement tools, body composition (data such as body weight, body fat ratios, lean muscle mass and body mass index) were taken with Tanita MC 780 MA brand device. The free time management scale and motivational persistence scale were used as measurement tools. Due to the small number of participants, Mann-Whitney U test, one of the nonparametric tests, was used to observe the differences between the control and experimental groups, and Wilcoxon sequential test was used to analyse the in-group pre-test and post-test data. The relationship between the scales was tested with the ‘Spearman's Correlations’ test. Regarding body composition, it was determined that recreational tennis practices contributed positively to the general health status of the participants. Comparisons between pre- and post-test measurements revealed that the participants showed a significant improvement in using their free time more efficiently as a result of recreational tennis activities. In terms of motivational persistence, it was observed that tennis practices strengthened the participants' determination to achieve their goals. The results of the study show that recreational tennis practices are an important tool that enables individuals to focus on long-term goals and to be resilient against the difficulties they face.